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Predictions for the Coming Month

Posted in Election 2012,Excessive Spending by Ryan on the February 14th, 2012

Santorum is riding a bit of a wave.  That much is obvious.  However, we’ve been here before.  Romney always seems to be just beyond the grasp of locking up the nomination, only to hit another snag and endure a week or more of someone being elevated to “contender” status.  If you look at the polling trends here, you will see a pattern that has only been broken once before.

Throughout the campaign, someone has consistently risen above Romney, only to plummet down again to allow another candidate to repeat the process.  Gingrich broke this trend by rising, falling, then rising again.  And now instead of Gingrich getting a second go at it, it is Santorum who was originally trending upward following the Iowa caucuses.
It seems that now that Santorum is the major national contender to Romney, one thing will most certainly happen.  He will be scrutinized more and more over the next couple of weeks, and everything that most people don’t know about him, will be revealed.

If you look at the polls coming out, Santorum is only polling a few points ahead of Romney nationally.  Unless he continues to trend upwards, he ought to be very concerned given the pattern into which he is now playing perhaps the final part.  Can he break the cycle and actually rise above Romney consistently over the coming weeks and months, or will he drop about as quickly as he rose?

I read an interesting post this morning that suggests to me that the more thorough vetting he never received earlier in the campaign is well underway.  And it doesn’t paint a rosy picture of him, or of the Tea Party that is helping fuel his rise.

Santorum has surged among Republican voters who as recently as 2010 claimed to oppose earmarks, big government, and over-regulation.

Rick Santorum passionately defends earmarks, even today. There has been no come-to-Jesus moment for the unrepentant former Senator and Congressman, who during his 16 years inside the Beltway racked up a $1 billion in earmarks. During that time, Santorum sided with Democrats to block cuts to federally-funded food stamps programs and to raise the minimum wage. He sought (and got) money for “green” projects in Pennsylvania and, among numerous other wasteful votes, voted for the Bridge to Nowhere.